Sometimes I can be contentious. At least that's what my wife says. I prefer to think that I stand up for what I believe is true. Even if someone else needs some evidence to be convinced.
Prime example this weekend. It was an argument that I've heard often. It says that the oil and auto companies are buying up inventions that would make travel much cheaper. You know the 200 mpg car. Or the car that runs on water.
I don't find their arguments of a conspiracy very compelling. Even if they know someone who was related to someone who knew the person who sold their patent to a major oil or auto company. Mostly because it doesn't make sense to me.
For instance, suppose that I had invented a device that would make it possible for the average car go to 200 miles on a gallon of gas. First I would patent the device so that no one could steal my idea. Then I'd either begin production of the device or sell it to a car maker. Let's suppose that I sold it to GM. Do you really think that they wouldn't produce the device? Think of how many cars and trucks they could sell if they were getting 10 times the mileage of other car companies. Their sales would sky rocket. So would their profit.
My friend says that the oil companies would buy it up to protect the oil still left in the ground. But the facts don't support that. The Economist magazine pointed out that the true players in oil are the nationalized oil companies.
Yet Big Oil is pretty small next to the industry's true giants: the national oil
companies (NOCs) owned or controlled by the governments
of oil-rich countries, which manage over 90% of the world's oil, depending on
how you count. Of the 20 biggest oil firms, in terms of reserves of oil and gas,
16 are NOCs. Saudi Aramco, the biggest, has more than
ten times the reserves that Exxon does.
You can read the rest of the article here.
I suppose that you could argue that I'd sell the secret patent to the Arabs, but I'm pretty sure that there are laws about selling technology overseas. But, even if I could and did sell to the Arabs, do you really think that I could keep it a secret? When Paris Hilton can't go to the grocery store without the whole world knowing how short her shorts were, do you really think that all the investigative reporters would overlook a multi-multi-million dollar deal of this type? Especially one that could save consumers thousands of dollars?
Guess I'm not big on conspiracies. But I do believe in good old fashioned engineering and invention. We saw it with fuel injection. First tried (and failed) in the 1950's, it became standard 20 years ago. Much more efficient than carbureators. Computer controls were another step in improving internal cumbusion engines. We have both power and mileage that would have been impossible a generation ago.
Improvements came gradually. I suspect that will also be true now. Sure, there will be some breakthroughs. But much of the solution to the energy crisis will come a little bit at a time. One year Toyota will come up with something good. The next year GM will have something even better. The year after that ExxonMobil will introduce something that takes advantage of whatever Toyota and GM introduced.
Maybe I'm missing something. I'm often reminded that I'm not perfect (unfortunately true). If you have some compelling argument or (better still) some proof that big companies are buying up inventions so they can't be used, I'd love to hear it. Shoot, at this point I'm sure that the whole world would like to hear it!
Keep on Stretching those Dollars!
Gary